“The biggest risk to the ongoing expansion, which in June will be in its record 111th month, remains the interest-rate increases at hand and the prospect of still more action by the Federal Reserve Board, ... The data suggest that some sectors may be beginning to respond to Fed tightening.”
“There was cautious optimism a month ago that manufacturing declines might have been bottoming out, ... Now, in the wake of the attacks, economic demand seems likely to slow.”
“This was a combination of both bad weather and the timing of when Easter fell, so it made the earlier period look better and this period look worse, ... When you wash [these effects] out, you essentially get the signal that consumption is not going like gangbusters, but at least it's reasonably strong.”
“Consumer spending remains the mainstay of this weak economic recovery. With tax cuts enacted, the consumer is likely to continue hanging in there, ... But a real recovery, including a slowdown in layoffs and the opening of new jobs, is far more dependent on recovery in (business) investment than on stronger consumption growth.”
“The September data indicate a general weakening in the job picture nationwide -- a trend we were seeing before the recent hurricanes. That data is consistent with the latest CEO Confidence Survey, which is also down.”
“There was cautious optimism a month ago that manufacturing declines might have been bottoming out. Now, in the wake of the attacks, economic demand seems likely to slow.”
“This was a combination of both bad weather and the timing of when Easter fell, so it made the earlier period look better and this period look worse. When you wash [these effects] out, you essentially get the signal that consumption is not going like gangbusters, but at least it's reasonably strong.”
“Consumer spending remains the mainstay of this weak economic recovery. With tax cuts enacted, the consumer is likely to continue hanging in there. But a real recovery, including a slowdown in layoffs and the opening of new jobs, is far more dependent on recovery in (business) investment than on stronger consumption growth.”
